With over $1 billion in volume on the prediction markets platform—a startling 2,700% year-over-year increase—Super Bowl Sunday was undoubtedly fantastic for Kalshi.

In an interview with CNBC earlier today, Tarek Mansour, the CEO and co-founder of Kalshi, brought up the $1 billion figure; however, another estimate places the company's Sunday turnover at $871 million. Even if the lesser number is correct, it would still be 60% more than Kalshi's previous peak volume day. Although the game itself is the main draw for traders and gamblers, data shows that Kalshi clients heavily favored non-sports contracts associated with the Super Bowl.

"While Kalshi users tend to bet more on money line bets vs. props or parlays, Kalshi users also favor the non-sports bets around sports,” observes Needham analyst Bernie McTernan. “Data shows that of the top seven Kalshi markets on the Super Bowl, four of seven were not involved with the game. These four include First Halftime Song, Ads during the game, Halftime Performers, and Super Bowl Guests.”

Mansour affirmed this, telling CNBC Kalshi clients generated around $45 million in derivatives based on artists who would play with the pop sensation and over $100 million in volume on futures involving Bad Bunny's debut single for the halftime show.

 

During Super Bowl Week, Kalshi Pricing Improved

Increased turnover on prediction markets was largely caused by the 2025 NFL season, but a common complaint was that those exchanges were providing lower prices than traditional sportsbooks, which might have given bettors little incentive to switch from sportsbooks to prediction markets.

According to data, Kalshi made success on sides and totals during Super Bowl Week, as well as in the highly sought-after parlay arena, which has historically been dominated by sportsbooks and is where the industry depends for Super Bowl revenue.

“Overall, Kalshi’s pre-game odds for game outcome and over/under were better for the vast majority of the week, with an average vig of 4.35% when adding in the transaction fee, on average, 3% better than DraftKings and FanDuel, on average,” said Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender in a note to clients. “We tracked combos (parlays) on Kalshi by taking the average odds and implied vig for 1) the over, and 2) the favorite (Seattle). The implied vig for Kalshi was 23.7%, 4% better than pricing for DraftKings and FanDuel, without the transaction fee.”

The expert continues, "Kalshi's pre-game volume on the Super Bowl winner was $361 million, but that figure jumped to $499 million by the final whistle, indicating bettors were moving in and out of positions as the game played out, something they can't do with standard sportsbooks."

 

Additional Evidence That Super Bowl Prediction Markets Were Beneficial

Additional indicators suggest that prediction market traders will win the Super Bowl. For instance, two of the top four sports gaming apps downloaded during the game were PrizePicks and Underdog. While the latter is collaborating with Crypto.com on event contracts, the former has a collaboration with Kalshi in prediction markets.

There was increasing proof that prediction market operators were winning at price. According to Bank of America, Polymarket and Novig were the two most lucrative venues for money line bets on the Seattle Seahawks, suggesting that both exchanges gave bettors greater payouts than a typical sportsbook.